My Retirement Plan Is Societal Collapse - Will It Happen In The 21st Century?

In 1972, researchers at MIT released a book called "The Limits to Growth." Their simulation predicted a global overshoot and collapse scenario sometime around the middle of the 21st century. How has this model held up, and what can we do about it?

In this episode we're going to discuss the predictions of the book, and see how these have held up. We're going to focus on the finite resources we have, and the insidious ideal of perpetual growth implied in capitalism. Finally, we'll discuss an alternative, one that does away with the perverse need for perpetual growth, which takes into account all of our basic needs, and the limits of our planet's capacity to sustain us.

Part I: The Predictions

In 1972, researchers at MIT published the book “Limits to Growth.” They modeled the future of the global economy using a simulation called World3. Based on the simulation, the researchers made a couple of predictions for the future.

The simulation the researchers ran took into account five factors: population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and non-renewable natural resources. They varied the parameters for three scenarios. First, the standard run scenario, which assumed no or almost no major changes compared to the period between 1900 and 1972. Second, the comprehensive technology scenario, which assumed technological advancements made resources virtually unlimited, most materials were recycled, and pollution was reduced to 25% of the 1972 value. Third, they ran the stabilized world scenario, which assumed measures had been taken to stabilize the different parameters.

The main predictions were that if the then current trends of population growth, industrialization, and resource consumption continued, we would eventually reach a point where the Earth's resources would become scarce, and the global economy would collapse. The book suggested that this collapse could happen by the middle of the 21st century, if no action was taken.

In the decades since the book's publication, new data and research have become available, and some updates have been made to the original predictions. For example, some researchers have suggested that the collapse of the global economy may happen later than the book predicted, due to technological advancements and changes in government policy. Some policy measures aimed at reducing pollution have been implemented by national governments.

A study done in 2000 updated the model with the figures in the time-span since the book's publication. It found that, although some parameters were underestimated by the "standard run" scenario, thanks in large part to the Internet, the service industry is larger than the scenario predicted, it still fits the updated data relatively well.

Also, researchers have pointed out that the book's predictions are not necessarily mutually exclusive. While the collapse of the global economy may happen later than the book's original predictions, it's still crucial to address these issues if we want to have a sustainable future.

Part II: The Limits of Resources

One of the key messages of "Limits to Growth" is that resources are limited and there is a finite amount of resources available for humanity to use. At some point, we will run out of resources like oil, natural gas, and minerals, if we continue to consume them at the current rate. And this is a concern, because these resources are essential for our modern way of life, from powering our homes and cars, to producing the goods and services we use every day.

It's important to understand that the availability of resources is not only limited by their physical scarcity, but also by the environmental and social costs of extracting and using them. For example, mining for coal and oil can cause significant damage to the environment, and extracting rare earth minerals used in electronics can lead to human rights abuses. These costs can make certain resources more difficult or expensive to access, which can affect our ability to continue to consume them.

Also, many of the resources we rely on today are non-renewable, meaning they cannot be replenished once they are used up. This is different from renewable resources like solar or wind power, which can be replenished naturally. Non-renewable resources, such as fossil fuels, will eventually run out, and as we continue to consume them, it becomes harder, more expensive, and more destructive to the environment to extract the remaining reserves.

So, the finite nature of resources is a fundamental concern for our global economy. We need to consider the fact that resources are limited, and consider the environmental and social costs of extracting and using them. And that means that the way we currently produce and use goods and services is not sustainable in the long term.

This has a significant impact on the economy. One of the most obvious impacts is on economic growth. The global economy is based on the idea of perpetual growth, but if we run out of resources, that growth will come to a halt. This leads to job losses, economic downturns, and even a global economic collapse, as predicted in the "Limits to Growth" book and its subsequent studies.

Another impact of resource depletion is on the price of goods and services. As resources become more scarce, it becomes more expensive to extract and produce them. This leads to higher prices for consumers, and to a situation where the cost of living becomes even more unaffordable for many people, which in turn leads to continued or exacerbated social and economic inequality.

In addition to economic impacts, the limit of resources also has significant environmental consequences. Extracting and consuming resources at the current, unsustainable rate leads to pollution, deforestation, and other forms of environmental destruction. This has a long-term impact on the planet's ability to support life, and leads to the loss of biodiversity and other ecological services that are vital for human survival. We are already in the middle of the sixth mass extinction, and we are the cause.

The race for scarce resources can lead to conflicts between countries and even wars. It's not difficult to imagine how a scarcity of oil, water or other resources could lead to geopolitical tensions.

Part III: Perpetual Growth and Sustainability

Capitalism is an economic system that is based on the idea of perpetual growth. Businesses are driven to expand and increase profits, and consumers are encouraged to buy more and more goods and services. This creates a cycle of growth that is built into the system.

However, this constant growth is unsustainable in the long run. It's not a feature, it's a bug. If we continue to consume resources at an unsustainable rate, we will eventually run out, and the global economy will collapse. It's becoming increasingly important to find ways to use them more efficiently and to transition to a more sustainable economy.

The constant pressure to grow and expand is also leading to social and economic inequality. As businesses are driven to increase profits, they often do so at the expense of workers, who are paid less, and have fewer benefits. And as prices for goods and services rise, it becomes more difficult for people to afford the things they need to live.

As we continue to consume resources at increasing rates, we're putting the environment and the global economy at risk. The constant pressure to grow leads to social and economic inequality. This becomes increasingly untenable in a world with finite resources. We need to find ways to balance economic growth with environmental and social sustainability if we want to have a future.

One way to tackle these problems is the "doughnut model." The "doughnut model" is an alternative framework for a sustainable economy, that aims to balance social and environmental sustainability while meeting the basic needs of everyone. It was developed by economist Kate Raworth, as a way to visualize the boundaries of what is socially and environmentally sustainable. The doughnut has two boundaries: the inner ring represents the social foundation - meeting the basic needs of all people -, and the outer ring represents the ecological ceiling - the safe operating space for humanity within the Earth's biophysical boundaries. The space in the middle represents the sweet spot of a sustainable and desirable future.

The doughnut model doesn't rely on constant growth in order to meet the basic needs of all. Instead, it aims to create a "steady state" economy. For example, if we are able to increase our efficiency in using and recycling resources, we can reduce the amount we extract from the planet, and still meet basic needs.

Implementing the doughnut model requires a number of changes to the current economic system. Businesses would need to shift their focus from maximizing profits to meeting basic needs and protecting the environment. Governments also need to play a more active role in ensuring that these basic needs are met, and that the environment is protected. Additionally, we need to develop new metrics to measure progress, that go beyond GDP, to measure well-being, and ecological footprint.

Part IV: Conclusion

The implications of these points are significant. If we continue on our current path, we're headed for a future of economic instability and environmental degradation. We’re already seeing both today, with rising energy costs, extreme wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, and erratic weather patterns all over the globe. We need to consider sustainable solutions, such as the doughnut model, to ensure economic stability and social-ecological well-being in the future.

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